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Hamas is expected to demand important changes to Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire proposal however may eventually agree to the outline in the coming days as a basis for renewed talks, according to analysts and sources familiar with the group.

The US President's Deadline and Proposal Outline

Trump set a deadline of “three or four days” from this week for Hamas to reply to his comprehensive plan, which aims to end the two-year war in Gaza and allow an seemingly open-ended international administration of the devastated territory, or face severe repercussions.

Political analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that the group now faces a decision of “two difficult options.” He added, “If they reject the proposal, as Trump has made clear, the outcome will be unfavorable and will allow Israel to do whatever it takes to end the conflict. Hamas will likely say ‘yes, but we require this and that’.”

Hamas's Key Concerns

A senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that it would be very difficult for the faction to accept the conditions without reservations. “That is understandable. The proposal lacks details. Yet any response short of full and unconditional approval will be exploited by Hamas by Israel, the US government, and possibly the Europeans,” he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted the Trump plan, which included many of Israel's principal demands and was formulated without consulting Hamas.

Netanyahu, who is sought for alleged international law violations by the international criminal court from the military campaign in the territory, has declared that Israel would “finish the job” if the group rejected the plan or delayed its execution. Earlier this year, Israeli forces unilaterally broke a two-month ceasefire, refusing to proceed with a planned second phase that might have permanently halted hostilities.

Internal Disagreements and External Pressure

The group's leadership are divided between Turkey, Doha, and Gaza, which hinders discussions on the faction's response. Turkey and Qatari authorities are urging Hamas to make concessions.

A major obstacle is the proposal's requirement that the faction surrender weapons, a source familiar with the organization revealed. The surrender of all weapons would be very difficult for the militants to agree to, particularly without any negotiated settlement or substantial progress toward a two-state solution.

“There are different trends inside the organization. Those in Doha tend to be more pragmatic, especially in contrast with the armed wing in Gaza. It is an clear need to have the buy-in of the armed faction, and the rank and file fighters,” the analyst explained.

War Context and Humanitarian Toll

The war were triggered by the militant attack into southern Israel that killed 1,200 individuals, primarily non-combatants. Approximately two hundred fifty were taken hostage, of whom forty-eight remain in the territory, though fewer than half are surviving.

Over 66,000 people, mostly non-combatants, have been fatally injured by Israel's offensive in Gaza, large parts of the area reduced to rubble, and most of the 2.3 million population displaced repeatedly.

The US Plan Details

Trump's proposal will mandate the militants to release the remaining Israeli hostages within three days of a truce coming into effect, the phased pullback of Israeli military forces to a security perimeter along the edge, and a surge of humanitarian aid. It also requires Israel to release more than a thousand detainees, many imprisoned for life, which the group could portray as a significant win.

An additional concern for the faction is the vague promise of Israeli withdrawals, though the explicit mention that there will be no annexation or control of Gaza by Israeli forces was viewed positively by one source familiar with the group.

Hamas's Current Condition and Capabilities

Some analysts argue that internal disagreements within Hamas are often exaggerated.

“I don't think there is a genuine division among Gaza, the Palestinian territories, and the external officials. All factions concur on opposing the disarmament because the military resistance is such a deep principle in their nature and ethos,” stated Michael Milshtein.

Hamas has experienced very significant losses in the conflict. Thousands of fighters have been eliminated, along with almost all senior military leaders. Research by an independent monitor indicated that at least forty commanders and important figures in Hamas's military wing had been targeted by Israeli airstrikes since spring. Their deaths have left only a single senior commander from the pre-war military council still in command, ACLED reported.

But Hamas maintains insurgent activities and upholds elements of administration in the lack of any alternative. Aid workers in Gaza reported that the faction still had a significant influence in the urban center, the “central camps” farther south, and the beach area of a coastal region.

Hamas, which was established in 1987, has recruited thousands of fresh recruits who, though untrained and lacking gear, can inflict casualties on Israeli forces.

Milshtein noted that, according to military sources, 90% of Hamas commanders had been eliminated, 97% of its missiles destroyed or launched, but only forty percent of the group's extensive underground system had been destroyed. “Hamas have adjusted to the new conditions. They are active in zones where the IDF has stated the group is eliminated, but you can’t totally erase them. They have metamorphosed and they persist,” Milshtein concluded.

Internal Resistance to the Proposal

Certain inside Hamas are committed to opposing the Trump plan outright.

“There exists a trend from the military wing, especially the newer members, which aims to keep fighting,” Lovatt explained. “Their view is that the Israeli government is facing challenges: the call-up of part-time soldiers is a significant strain, elections are scheduled within a year, there is growing global and local criticism … So, for this faction, it’s just a question of who will hold out the longest.”